Trump will guarantee a major win for Democrats in 2024 – Liberal Article
Trump already has one murder on his hands; the Reform Party. In 2000, Donald Trump ran for President for the Reform Party. The party had risen fast under Ross Perot, but when Donald Trump announced he would run to be their new leader, the Party was laughed out of the election, and the Reform party died.
In 2016, Trump didn’t have the same effect on the Republicans. However now, I believe he could be back with a vengeance, ready to kill the Republican party.
This will not be the first time I try to predict the future this week. I have already talked about the UK’s general election in 2024. I wonder how far off my predictions will be, but instead of multiple, I will produce one; Donald Trump will start his own party.
Republicans in Congress are already foaming in the mouths, preparing to stop ‘The Donald’ from returning. A lot of them think he has left a scar on the party that will never truly heal. This may be true; loyalists to the Republican Party and Donald Trump will not disappear overnight, and the electoral college will always mean the election will be close.
However, it seems incredibly likely Donald Trump will not return. He may try to run, but I cannot see him winning the primaries. I am ready to see Paul Ryan return from the ashes as the new saviour for the Republicans (although any Democrat would be better). Central Republicans will rally around one man, and guarantee his success.
However, Donald is already raising funds. Although his new Save America PAC is legally unsound, it is raising money at an unprecedented rate. By December, the PAC had raised $207 million. From the sounds of it, this money will be used to pay off debts that the Trump party has risen for lawsuits for the Republican party, or Trump himself. However, this signals his intentions.
So what can he do? Create his own party of course. Some government officials have already started running on Trump’s coattails, now claiming to be part of the future ‘Patriot Party’. Yes, everyone, you read that right, Trump could be creating his own party called the Patriot Party.
Although you may have your head in your hands at this point, or maybe a slight smirk followed by staring into the abyss thinking of what is to come, this news should excite you.
Republicans are split, some Donald, some Republican. There are waves of Republicans who can’t stand Trump, but will only vote Republican, and then there are those who will vote Trump no matter the cost.
If you haven’t seen the final result yet I will reveal. Democrats will keep the same amount of voters, the Republican party will be split in two. Democrats could dominate most, if not all states. If this actually happens, where Trump runs and manages to draw enough supports, whoever runs for President in 2024 as a Democrat, will win.
Now here is where it gets exciting. If Trump can get enough people on the ballots to run for Congress, they will also see themselves fall into this split. Democrat domination.
Now if you are a Republican or Trump fan reading this, I know this thought will scare you. I understand, although I completely disagree with you. However, you need to think of the future. Trump is now destroying your party. You have a choice; abandon him and try to move forward to a better future, or see yourselves struggle for the next eight years.
Written by Senior Liberal Writer, Max Anderson
Patriot Party is a fantasy – A Conservative Response
Unfortunately for my colleague here, the idea of Trump starting his own party has been shown to be nothing more than a fantasy, for the moment at least. While the Republican Party has no doubt reason to be terrified of Donald Trump’s continued involvement in politics, they do not need to fear him creating a party. They need to be more worried about the inevitable Trumpist candidate in 2024. They also need to watch and make sure Trumpist Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene don’t ascend the ranks to wield too much power in the party.
Trump’s campaign has already quashed rumours that Trump will start his own party. They have gone so far as to file a notice with the Federal Election Commission to say that Trump is not affiliated with the Party, nor with the fundraising efforts relating to it.
This is probably because the party so far is filled with the worst elements of Trump’s right-wing supporters, that Trump’s advisors are saying that it is a good idea not to be associated with it. So in that respect, I have to crush my colleague’s excitement that Trump will split the Republican Party.
What Republicans have to worry about most however is Trump pushing candidates. He will no doubt be funding and touting his preferred candidates, in order to keep his influence alive in the party. He will also commit his backing to the Trumpist candidate for the 2024 race, possibly even Don Jr. or Ivanka. In a sense, they’re lucky that Trump’s voice has been virtually silenced.
I don’t think the man himself will run again, even he has to recognise that his presidential career is over. While the Republicans won’t convict Trump because they care about their political careers (I hope I’m wrong), the writing is on the wall that Trump himself is a toxic figure. He will not be able to get a major policy platform again.
Written by Senior Conservative Writer, Kieran Burt
A Republican split will guarantee a win for the Democrats – A Labour Response
Mary Trump’s predictions in her book, ‘Too Much and Never Enough,’ were right that Trump would try to bring the Republican Party down with him if he did not win the 2020 election. That is evident through his incitement of the insurrection on Capitol Hill.
Trump demonstrated that he would be willing to bring down anyone, even his closest allies, if they did not support his baseless claims to victory: ‘I hope Mike Pence comes through for us…Of course, if he doesn’t come through, I won’t like him very much’.
I don’t believe that Trumpist candidates like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebart, and Madison Cawthrone are a threat. This is because they got elected riding the Trump train. They did not get voted in based on their policies or expertise on political issues. With Trump out of office and the inevitable decline of Trumpism, these candidates are likely to derail with the train.
Moreover, candidates from either political party in recent years have only won by small margins. Before the year 2000, many presidential candidates got into power with high shares of the electoral college. An example of this is the 1984 election in which Ronald Raegan won 95.16% of the electoral college votes. However, since 2000 the vote share was at its highest in 2008 at 35.68% and has declined in the last three elections.
The United States has become increasingly polarized between the Democrats and Republicans, and it is likely that it will continue in this trajectory. The actions of Donald Trump may have tarnished the reputation of the Republican Party but within an increasingly partisan society, I do not believe that 2024 is a guaranteed win for the Democrats.
The Republican Party are going to try and do everything in their power to stay united. As the country is so polarized, any schism in the Republican Party would guarantee a Democrat win in 2024. It is clear that Republicans want to distance themselves from the past four years but doing this too outwardly would lead to the risk of the party becoming divided.
The Republicans are not going to convict the former president in the Senate because this would risk doing exactly that. What they do want is for these Trumpist candidates to be delegitimized. Republicans voted to certify the Presidential election and accept that the Democrats legitimately won. This demonstrates how Republicans want to distance themselves from the previous administration.
However, the party is unlikely to impeach President Trump in the Senate. It will risk alienating the Trumpist part of the party, especially with Senator Rand Paul saying the impeachment is ‘dead on arrival’ and most Republicans believing it to be unconstitutional.
I do not believe that Trump has guaranteed a win for the Democrats in 2024. What I do believe is that Republicans will do everything in their power to remain united against the risk of splitting the party.
Written by Junior Labour Writer, Dom Verlaque
I am currently in my second year of reading Politics at the University of Exeter. My first interaction with politics was at the tender age of four years old.
Hello, my name is Kieran Burt and I am going into second year at Nottingham Trent University studying Politics and International Relations. I first developed an interest in politics through reading the Dictator’s Handbook by Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, when I was 16, and have furthered my interest by studying politics at A level and now at university.
Coming from a fairly political background I was constantly surrounded by debates and diverse opinions. Learning of my Grandad’s imprisonment in the Seychelles for criticizing the dictatorial government in his newspaper pushed me to engage in the political conversation and become an advocate for human rights.